Climate change increases the global threat of three ragweed species
Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae: EPPO List of invasive alien plants) A. psilostachya and A. trifida (EPPO A2) are native to the Americas and have various impacts (impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human health) in their invasive regions. To study the probable effect of climate change on the distribution of each species, global geographic occurences of each species were collected. These data were included in a species distribution model (biomod2 package RStudio) along with bioclimatic variables and climatic data projections for 2050s under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). RCP8.5 assumes an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations to approximately 850 ppm by the 2070s. The model predicts that for all three species, the total area of suitable habitats is expected to expand under the four climatic scenarios in Europe in the 2050s. Future projections suggest that the geographical distribution of the three species would overlap mainly in Asia (Kazakhstan and China), Europe (Western Russia) and North America.
Sources
Xian X, Zhao H, Wang R, Huang H, Chen B, Zhang G, Liu W, Wan F (2023) Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene. Science of the Total Environment 859, 160252.